In his memo, Oyaas noted that the accepted payment for contraction was $250 million -- one figure now being cited by some baseball sources.

Oyaas concluded, in April: "The current effort is little more than a means to placate fans and protect the Pohlad legacy in the community ('Hey we tried')." And that the Pohlads' lobbying efforts were merely the cost of setting up a $250 million payday.

Karla Blomberg, chairwoman of Minnesotans for Major League Baseball, a study group brought together by the Twins, said she came to believe earlier this year that contraction was a credible threat. Her group, like New Ballpark Inc., brought in Giants senior vice president and general counsel, Jack Bair, to discuss the difficulties of baseball's revenue sharing arrangement, and Bair convinced her group that contraction was a viable financial option.

"Everybody gets more of the pie because there are fewer teams," she said. "There's more enthusiasm for the teams that exist. And then when they decide, 'Here's a community that really wants baseball,' they can say, 'We can take this team off the shelf and sell it to you for a high price.'

"It's so simple, in my mind, that it's hard to see how people might not recognize it."

Simple math

Blomberg, Oyaas and other experts say the math is indeed simple. Contraction will cost from $14 million to $18 million per team -- less than Texas shortstop Alex Rodriguez made this season.

The cost to the 28 remaining teams will be defrayed by lower revenue sharing payments and a larger share of television and licensing revenues. And, possibly, by collecting future expansion fees.

"What this almost sounds like is the owners saying, 'We'll contract to where everybody is making money and has built a revenue-generating stadium,' " Anton said. "They can cash out the lesser owners and everybody else can stay in the game and make tons of money."

Baseball would certainly benefit from having a market where it can threaten to relocate other struggling franchises. Some baseball officials call it the "The Wild scenario."

That is, when the Minnesota North Stars stunned the state by leaving for Dallas, Minnesota and St. Paul, in particular responded by building a state-of-the-art arena and paying a huge expansion fee to regain an NHL franchise -- the now popular Minnesota Wild.

Selig has used threats of relocation or contraction in the past. Last July he told members of Minnesotans for Major League Baseball, "Without a new stadium, there's no chance to succeed here. You need to get it done."

Last July, baseball also released its Blue Ribbon Panel report. That report urged more revenue sharing; it also espoused relocation and contraction as possible options to revitalize the game.

"They studied this game for 18 months, they looked at all the books, and they came out and said a number of things had to be done," said Rep. Harry Mares, R-White Bear Lake, a stadium proponent. "And their bottom two points were that relocation should be required if their criteria were not met, and number two was contraction.

"If Carl Pohlad says he wants contraction, he's got the respect of all the owners, he's served on all the committees, they like him, and he and the commissioner have been close for years.

"I've studied this whole process and I believe Bud Selig has his ducks in a row. He's not going to do or say anything about this unless he has the votes."

There are obstacles to contraction:

• The powerful Players Association would fight the loss of jobs. (Officials from the Players Association are telling their members that contraction cannot be enacted in time for the 2002 season.)
• Potential lawsuits from minor-league affiliates with contracts to work with Major League teams.
• Potential lawsuits from the state and city, or workers dependent on the team.

But several lawyers said they believe lawsuits against a multibillion-dollar industry willing to pay millions in contraction fees would not be problematic.

Attorney Clark Griffith, son of former Twins owner Calvin Griffith, said he sees no sense in contraction. "It's like saying there's something wrong with my heart, so I'm going to cut my feet off," he said.

And yet he said there would be few meaningful obstacles to contraction.

"The minor league teams can be bought out, fairly cheaply in this context," he said. "Minor league organizations are linked to the major leagues by the professional baseball agreement. They are subject to commissioner's powers in certain ways. If there are contracts with major league teams to supply them with baseball players for next year, MLB simply steps in and causes those contracts to be fulfilled, by supplying players or affiliate teams or money.

"The only damages that can be brought by the minor leagues -- or a lot of other potential claimants -- are contract damages, which are money damages. You can't compel a Major League team to stay in business to simply comply with a minor-league team contract.

"Where there are potential lawsuits -- whereby a court can stop contraction -- everything's a money damages issue. There's no specific performance stuff here, such as a 30-year lease which argues that you have to be there."

The Twins have a one-year lease at the Metrodome, and Metropolitan Sports Facilities Commission executive director Bill Lester said neither his organization nor any Metrodome employees would likely gain much via a suit.

He said the commission makes about $500,000 off the Twins during a calendar year. "And people who work here are not guaranteed a minimum number of dates and are not specifically tied to the Twins," Lester said.

Why now?

Why would Pohlad, who saved baseball for Minnesota by buying the Twins in 1984, get out now?

People with knowledge of Pohlad say he believes efforts to gain a new stadium are doomed, he's fearful of paying an ever-rising payroll simply to keep his current team together, and he's not sure he wants the team to be a future burden to his family.

Jim Pohlad, one of Carl's three sons, recently told the Star Tribune that he would like to run the team. That was before word leaked that his father was willing to accept a check for contraction.

If the Twins are eliminated, they would hardly become the most celebrated parting of team and locale.

In 1984, The Colts left Baltimore under cover of darkness to relocate to Indianapolis.

When Cleveland Browns owner Art Modell's fight for a stadium became rancorous, he moved his team to Baltimore, where they became the Ravens and won the Super Bowl in 2001. This year the expansion Browns are playing in a new stadium in Cleveland.

The hockey North Stars left Minnesota, the football Rams left Los Angeles, the baseball Giants left the Polo Grounds and the baseball Dodgers left Ebbets Field.

Perhaps one of those team owners would have been willing to fold rather than move, if offered a big enough check.

"I've been trying to get civic and political leaders to take this notion seriously," said New Ballpark's Oyaas. "Part of the doubting is due to the hangover from Carl's supposed attempt to move the team to North Carolina in '97. So people wouldn't believe this even if it were true.

"We had hoped, with our organization, to keep the level of activity to a point where the league couldn't say, 'Well, they're not doing anything in Minneapolis.' But, at this point, I believe in my heart of hearts that we're the ones to be contracted."

Oyaas says he's heartbroken. But not surprised.